There have been other tight 2nd District races that have gone to a ranked-choice runoff since Maine started using the system in 2018, but none where the percentages were this close.

Dunlap would have to net the vast majority of blank and write-in ballots to overtake Paul LePage.

To overtake Paul LePage, Matt Dunlap would need to net more than 5,418 votes from the 6,140 ballots that were blank or went to write-ins.

If his current lead holds, the former governor's victory will stand almost alone for Maine Republicans.

Paul LePage is the only Republican with a chance to be part of Maine’s congressional delegation next year.

People make the calls, not models, and only at greater than 99% certainty.